Quantitative Risk Assessments

Timelines are under constant pressure—whether from external expectations or internal optimism. A Schedule Quantitative Risk Assessment gives you a clearer, data-backed view of how long your project is likely to take, and where delays are most likely to occur.

We combine statistical analysis with discrete risk mapping to assess:

• The probability of completing the project within a given timeframe
• The amount of schedule overrun still at risk

By linking risks directly to your schedule’s logic and durations, the assessment highlights the areas most likely to shift—before they cause impact.

This insight enables your team to:

• Set realistic, risk-adjusted timelines
• Prepare contingency plans for potential delays
• Communicate delivery expectations with greater confidence

When you know where the time risks lie, you can take action before they turn into actual delays.

Cost uncertainty often hides in the details—design assumptions, incomplete drawings, or outdated pricing strategies. Our CAPEX Quantitative Risk Assessment helps you uncover and quantify that uncertainty, so you can make better-informed decisions about contingency and investment.

We focus on three main areas of variation:

• Design maturity and quantity take-offs – Less detailed designs lead to greater variability in quantities.
• Unit rate accuracy – Project-specific pricing is more reliable than historical averages.
• Risks in the project register – Event-based risks that could significantly affect project cost.

These elements are combined in a Monte Carlo simulation to produce a cost probability distribution. From that, you get clear insights into:

• The probability of meeting your cost target
• The amount of risk still unaccounted for at a given budget level
• How much contingency is appropriate based on your project’s risk appetite

Instead of relying on best guesses, you gain a risk-adjusted view of cost—one that supports confident, transparent decisions.

In today’s fast-changing environment, relying on historical data alone can leave you exposed. A Business Case Quantitative Risk Assessment enhances your financial model with Monte Carlo simulations—giving you a full view of potential outcomes, from the downside to the upside.

We model financial performance across a wide range of scenarios, helping you understand:

• The probability of meeting or exceeding key financial thresholds (like NPV, IRR, and payback period)
• Where the biggest financial risks and opportunities lie
• How confident you can be in the project’s business case

By moving beyond static assumptions, this analysis gives boards and decision-makers a more complete picture—one grounded in data, not speculation.

The result: greater confidence in the numbers and stronger investment decisions, even in the face of uncertainty.

Scope definition sets the foundation for every successful project—but gaps early on often lead to risks later. The Project Definition Rating Index (PDRI) helps you evaluate how well your project is defined and where uncertainty still lingers.

Developed by the Construction Industry Institute (CII), the PDRI is a structured tool that:

• Identifies gaps in scope that could affect cost, schedule, or performance
• Surfaces early-stage risks that might otherwise go unnoticed
• Recommends mitigation actions before detailed design and execution begin

We’ve used PDRI to assess over 50 projects in the past three years—helping clients proactively manage project uncertainty from the start.

Systemic risks often fall outside standard risk registers. Our Systemic Risk Assessment identifies underlying risk drivers like:

• Optimism bias
• Socio-political complexity
• Poor decision-making structures
• Contracting models
• Project complexity

Our proprietary model benchmarks project data against historical parameters to provide early warnings and contingency estimates grounded in real-world experience.