An honest look at the role of simulation in large capital projects.
Based on more than a decade of experience working across 70+ capital projects, this article offers a grounded perspective on simulation modelling—what it is, how it’s used, and where it adds value in complex project environments like mining.
The author explains the two core types of models:
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Static models, such as Monte Carlo simulations, which explore variability at a single point in time.
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Dynamic models, which simulate how systems evolve over time, capturing interactions and delays that impact performance.
The article explores how simulation can be used to:
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Test designs before implementation
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Evaluate the effect of variability in systems
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Understand interactions between project components
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Estimate capacity and resource requirements more accurately
It also reflects on the real-world challenges of simulation: the abundance of data that needs to be filtered, the risks of poor inputs, and the difficulty of justifying the cost of a tool that doesn’t produce a physical asset. The author stresses that while simulation can offer deep insight, its value depends on clear objectives, good data, and stakeholder involvement.
Rather than being technical, the article is conversational and reflective—highlighting both the beauty and frustration of simulation in capital projects. It encourages practitioners to think carefully about when simulation is worth doing, and how to do it well.
📥 Download the full article for a practical and thoughtful perspective on simulation modelling from someone who’s lived it.
