Is Your Project Being Sabotaged by Your Own Mind?
In any project, individuals engage in thinking, judgment, and decision-making. And wherever these processes occur, psychological factors inevitably come into play. The biggest challenge for project managers isn’t an outside factor—it’s how our own minds function, particularly our behavioural biases.
Behavioural Biases
Behavioural scientists have identified over 200 biases to date. Among these, three biases—optimism bias, uniqueness bias, and anchoring—are most likely to disrupt project planning and management, negatively impacting project outcomes if not identified and addressed upfront and during delivery.
Optimism Bias
According to B. Flyvbjerg (2021), optimism bias is a cognitive bias characterised by the tendency to be overly optimistic about the outcomes of planned actions. This includes the overestimation of the likelihood and magnitude of positive events, and the underestimation of the likelihood and magnitude of negative ones. In project planning and control, an optimistic cost or schedule estimate will typically be low, leading to cost overruns and schedule delays. Similarly, an optimistic benefit estimate will be high, resulting in benefit shortfalls.
Optimism bias can be both a blessing and a curse. Optimism and a “can-do” attitude are essential for initiating and progressing projects. However, this bias can lead to significant setbacks if project managers are unaware of its pitfalls, thereby taking on risks that would have been avoided had the real, non-optimistic odds been considered.
Uniqueness Bias
Uniqueness bias, as defined by B. Flyvbjerg, is the tendency of planners and managers to view their projects as singular. This bias can hinder managers’ learning because they believe they have little to gain from the experiences of other projects due to the perceived uniqueness of their own. Uniqueness bias may also feed optimism bias, as planners who subscribe to this bias often underestimate risks. Research by Flyvbjerg and Budzier (2011) found that managers who regard their projects as unique tend to perform significantly worse than those who recognise the similarities with other projects. Truly unique projects are rare, and there is much to learn from past projects. Ignoring these lessons can jeopardise project success. Adopting an outside view—considering similar projects that have already been completed—is an effective antidote to uniqueness bias.
The Anchoring Effect
Anchoring is the tendency to rely too heavily on, or “anchor” on one piece of information when making decisions. In other words it’s a subconscious behaviour of making incorrect estimates due to previously heard quantities
Example: Imagine I ask you whether the Eiffel Tower is taller or shorter than 150 meters, and then I ask you to estimate its actual height. Your guess will likely be closer to 150 meters, even though the Eiffel Tower is actually 330 meters tall.
If instead, I had first asked whether it was taller or shorter than 400 meters, your estimate would likely be much higher.
This happens because the first number you hear—even if it’s random—acts as an anchor that influences your judgment.
Project planners and managers often make the mistake of basing their decisions on the best-case scenarios rather than the most likely ones. They also tend to rely on their own limited experiences rather than looking at a wider range of past projects, which would give them a better sense of all possible outcomes. Wise project leaders avoid this by comparing their projects to similar ones that have already been completed. This approach helps them set more realistic goals and expectations by understanding the typical results for projects like theirs.
Want to Know How to Mitigate These Biases?
Behavioural biases like optimism bias, uniqueness bias, and anchoring can quietly derail even the best-planned projects. But there are ways to avoid these traps and improve your chances of success.
To discover practical methods for tackling these hidden challenges, download the full article below:
References:
- Flyvbjerg, B. (2021). Top-Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview. Project Management Journal, 52(6), 531-546.
- Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York, NY
- Klein, G. (2007). Performing a project premortem. Harvard Business Review.
